After a spike in crude oil and gas prices in October following the Hamas terror attack, prices eased down 9 per cent month-on-month in November. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and Opec+ agreed to a further voluntary production cut in January-March 2024 to try and support global crude prices. The best guess here is that crude prices (currently at $75/barrel, or bbl) will not likely cross significantly above $80, and gas prices are also likely to remain subdued unless there's a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Chinese stock markets suffered their biggest single-day drop since the global financial crisis.
'Oil companies like IOC, BPCL and HPCL have to set up world class systems where they are always two steps ahead of the crooks,' says Sudhir Bisht, a veteran of the petroleum industry.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 27 per cent jump in its September quarter net profit as earnings from the oil and gas business rebounded, and a pick-up in fashion and grocery helped boost retail revenues. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit of Rs 17,394 crore, or Rs 25.71 per share, in July-September - the second quarter of the current 2023-24 fiscal - was 27.3 per cent higher than Rs 13,656 crore, or Rs 19.92 a share, earning a year back, the company said in a statement. The net profit was also higher quarter-on-quarter compared to Rs 16,011 crore earnings in the preceding three months ended June 30.
India is expected to contribute 15 per cent to the global growth in 2023, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Tuesday. "Both India and China are expected to contribute 50 per cent of the global growth in the upcoming year (2023). "However, the share of India's contribution to global growth is expected to be around 15 per cent," Krishna Srinivasan, director, Asia and Pacific Department (APD) at IMF said at a roundtable with reporters from south Asian countries.
India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Friday. Varma further said out of the four engines of growth for the economy, exports and government spending supported the Indian economy through the pandemic, but other engines need to pick up the baton now. " I like to think in terms of the four engines of growth for the economy: exports, government spending, capital investment and private consumption. "...while exports cannot be the main driver of growth because of the global slowdown, government spending is necessarily limited by fiscal constraints," he told PTI.
While OPEC has been unable to agree on an output freeze in an effort to support prices, Iraq was the latest Middle East producer to raise its exports quota
There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
'IT companies do not have a large presence there either in terms of market and team. So, the impact of the war will be minimal. But West Asia is an emerging economy.'
Stepping up violence ahead of Independence Day, United Liberation Front of Assam blew up a gas pipeline, a steel bridge and a transformer across Assam, police said in Guwahati on Tuesday.
The NSE 50-share Nifty spurted 97.25 points, or 0.92 per cent, to 10,715.50
We are surrounded by food that is contaminated, adulterated and does not meet Indian safety and packaging standards, says Abheet Singh Sethi/IndiaSpend.com.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
National carrier Air India's domestic operation was affected today in the wake of the ongoing strike by the 55,000 officers of 14 state-run oil companies. Jet Airways had also made all arrangements at its end, so that it was not affected, its chief executive officer Wolfgang Prock-Schuaer said in a statement on Tuesday.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
India Inc could be embarking upon a new phase of capital expenditure (capex) cycle, observed analysts, and suggest its revival would lead to a rerating of industrial stocks. Assisted by a property upcycle, analysts at Jefferies said several government initiatives were likely to drive capex. Indicators, they said, include a private project announcement at Rs 25 trillion for 2022-23 (up 150 per cent from pre-pandemic levels) and credit growth at about 16 per cent, which is closer to pre-pandemic highs.
Overseas direct investment by Indian companies fell by over 53 per cent year-on-year to $1.16 billion in July 2014, as per RBI data.
Educational technology company Byju's chief financial officer Ajay Goel has quit after completing the audit process for the financial year 2022 and will return to Vedanta, the company said in a statement. The edtech major has roped in industry veteran Pradip Kanakia as senior advisor, and president (finance) Nitin Golani has been given additional responsibility as India chief finance officer (CFO) to handle the finance function of the company.
From the early pioneers to today's global superstars, the Olympics have captured hearts and minds, shaping cultures and inspiring generations.
The 62 per cent increase in natural gas prices by the Indian government will boost the profitability of upstream companies in the country and support their investment spending, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday. The price for gas from fields that were assigned by the state to oil companies, mainly Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL), increased to $2.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for October 2021-March 2022, from $1.79 per mmBtu in the previous six months. "Higher gas prices will increase the input cost for key end-consumer sectors, to the extent the price hike is passed on," Fitch said.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported an 11 per cent drop in its June quarter net profit largely due to weak oil-to-chemical (O2C) vertical and higher interest and depreciation cost. Net profit was Rs 16,011 crore, or Rs 23.66 per share, in April-June - the first quarter of current 2023-24 fiscal year - compared with Rs 17,955 crore, or Rs 26.54 a share, earning a year back, according to a company's stock exchange filing.
Russia has defaulted on the supply of at least 5 cargoes or shiploads of LNG to India after its retaliatory sanctions hit one of the companies that supply gas to India, sources said. India's largest gas firm GAIL has a long-term deal to import 2.85 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum from a Singapore-based unit of Russian gas producer Gazprom. The company has since June defaulted on the supply of 5 cargoes of LNG under that contract citing difficulty in sourcing gas due to sanctions, two sources briefed on the matter said.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
From the Sensex pack, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Power Grid and HDFC Bank were the major gainers. Jio Financial Services, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, ITC, UltraTech Cement and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
'Focus on 19,400/64,900 as the key resistance levels for the Nifty/Sensex.'
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The rated oil and gas companies, Fitch said, have a significant proportion of foreign currency-denominated debt.
Renewed inflationary pressures, led by a spike in prices of vegetables and cereals, have cast a spell on the equity markets in the past month. The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have declined up to 2 per cent each during the period, clipping the 13 per cent rally from the March lows, shows data from ACE Equity. Investors typically consider shares of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies as defensive bets, putting their weight behind them in a falling market.
Tightening Russian gas supplies to Europe has led to scramble for tankers before winter sets in.
RBML - the joint venture of Reliance Industries Ltd and supermajor BP - has told the government that fuel retailing for the private sector in India has become unsustainable after market-controlling public sector firms frequently froze petrol and diesel prices at rates way below the cost, sources said. Despite a surge in oil prices, state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) first froze petrol and diesel rates for a record 137 days beginning early November 2021 when five states including Uttar Pradesh went to the polls, and last month again went into a hiatus that is now 47 days old. "They (Reliance BP Mobility Ltd) has written to the petroleum ministry over the fuel pricing issue," a highly placed source in the government, who didn't want to be quoted, told reporters.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a pitch for electing a strong and stable government in an uncertain world beset by geopolitical tensions as the Bharatiya Janata Party on Sunday released its manifesto, prioritising development and welfare while shunning populist measures and contentious issues like the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
Some of these nations are India's biggest export market. India is also dependent on these countries to meet its energy needs.
The crises of the 21st century, 9/11, the economic meltdown, COVID-19, Russia-Iran war and the Hamas-Israel war seem to be never ending. In this situation, Iran might be contemplating a nuclear deterrent to defend itself, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan, the distinguished long-time Rediff contributor who turns 80 on June 17..
In a statement, the state government alleged 'malicious attempts' to discourage the use of products lacking a halal certificate not only seek 'unfair financial benefits' but also form part of a 'pre-planned strategy to sow class hatred, create divisions in society, and weaken the country' by "anti-national elements".
The Centre is pushing for bilateral trade with Cuba and its settlement in rupee as a part of its strategy to internationalise the domestic currency. A delegation from Cuba, including officials from its central bank, met Indian government officials and banks last month to discuss bilateral trade and settlement using the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) payment mechanism in rupee, said people aware of the matter. Since the Cuban nation has opened up its economy and is looking to implement reforms to attract investments from India, Cuban banks have evinced interest in opening special rupee vostro accounts (SRVAs) with Indian banks.
Before 2019, an estimated 22 million individual income-tax returns did not have to pay any taxes. But after the change in the exemption level, another 13 million individual tax returns did not require to pay taxes. Thus, of about 58 million returns, as much as 63 per cent or 35 million went out of the direct tax net, A K Bhattacharya points out.
It is time the political leaderships in this country arrived at a common ground over issues of foreign and security policy concerns. There has to be a greater communication between the government and the Opposition leaderships for the nation to present a unified face against the rest of the world, advises N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tehran plans to lift exports by 500,000 barrels per day
Consumption-related stocks, such as hotels, and quick service restaurants (QSRs), have been hitting the ball out of the park ahead. On the other hand, the Miss World Pageant scheduled for later this year in New Delhi, too, could provide some tailwind to these stocks, especially hotels and aviation. However, analysts suggest investors put their best foot forward and buy these counters only on a decline given the recent rally and economic headwinds.
